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Champions League permutations: What Chelsea, Newcastle and Man City need to qualify

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Chelsea, Newcastle United, and Manchester City are among five Premier League clubs still battling for a place in next season’s UEFA Champions League as the final matchday of the 2024–25 campaign approaches.

With Liverpool crowned champions and Arsenal firmly secured in second, both clubs have already booked their spots in Europe’s premier club competition for the 2025–26 season.

Tottenham Hotspur will also feature in the Champions League despite their poor domestic form this season. Their qualification comes via their Europa League final victory over Manchester United earlier this week.

That leaves three Champions League berths still open, with clubs placing third, fourth, and fifth in the Premier League standings set to join Liverpool, Arsenal, and Spurs in next year’s tournament.

While the top four typically qualify, UEFA has granted the Premier League an additional slot this year due to strong showings from English clubs across continental competitions.

That added incentive has intensified the battle as Chelsea, Newcastle, Manchester City, Aston Villa, and Nottingham Forest all remain in contention entering the season’s final fixtures.

At the top of the table, Liverpool have 83 points and Arsenal sit on 71, both already assured of their Champions League spots.

Manchester City are third with 68 points, followed closely by Newcastle and Chelsea, both on 66. Aston Villa also have 66 points but trail on goal difference. Nottingham Forest sit just behind them on 65 points.

Goal difference plays a critical role here. Newcastle boast a +22 goal difference, which puts them in the strongest position among the teams tied on points. Chelsea follow with +20, while Villa lag significantly at +9.

Manchester City face Fulham away and only need a point to lock in a top-five finish. A win would likely secure third place, and there’s still an outside chance to leapfrog Arsenal for second, though that would require a heavy win and a substantial loss for the Gunners.

City’s worst-case scenario is dropping to sixth, which would send them to the Europa League instead.

Newcastle are at home against Everton and can clinch Champions League football with a win—unless Aston Villa somehow overturn the large goal differential.

A draw would also suffice if Villa fail to win or Chelsea draw with Forest. A loss would leave them depending on Villa losing or a more favorable goal swing against Chelsea or Forest.

Chelsea head to the City Ground to play Nottingham Forest in what will be a decisive matchup for both clubs.

A win will likely send Chelsea into the top five, barring a goal difference miracle from Villa. A draw would leave them needing a Newcastle loss or a non-victory from Villa. If they lose, Chelsea could still qualify if Newcastle also lose by a larger margin.

Aston Villa must travel to Old Trafford to face Manchester United. A loss ends their Champions League hopes. A draw could be enough only if Newcastle fall to Everton. A win over United could see Villa qualify if either Chelsea or Newcastle drop points.

Nottingham Forest are the ultimate outsiders. They must defeat Chelsea to even have a chance at the Champions League. Even then, they would still rely on either Newcastle or Villa failing to secure three points in their respective fixtures.

As for Europa League qualification, Crystal Palace are already assured of a place after their FA Cup triumph. The Premier League’s sixth-placed team will also earn a spot in Europe’s secondary competition.

Meanwhile, the Conference League berth is currently held by Newcastle after their Carabao Cup win. However, this could shift. If Chelsea win the Conference League final against Real Betis and finish seventh, the spot may pass down to the eighth-placed Premier League team, either Brentford or Brighton.

The same could happen if Chelsea finish sixth and Newcastle seventh, as long as the Blues also lift the Conference League trophy.

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Liam Rosenior provides Estevao update ahead of Arsenal Carabao Cup semi-final

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Liam Rosenior has admitted there is still uncertainty surrounding whether teenage winger Estevao will be available for Chelsea’s Carabao Cup semi-final second leg against Arsenal.

The Brazilian youngster was absent from Saturday’s thrilling 3-2 comeback victory over West Ham after returning home on compassionate leave. Since Rosenior’s arrival, Estevao has been a regular presence in the side and has played a key role in Chelsea winning six of their seven matches under the new head coach.

The only setback so far in Rosenior’s reign came in the first leg of the semi-final, when Chelsea slipped to a narrow 3-2 defeat at home to Arsenal. Goals from Alejandro Garnacho in that match ensured the tie remains finely balanced, giving the Blues hope of overturning the deficit and reaching the final, where either Manchester City or Newcastle await.

Chelsea would undoubtedly benefit from Estevao’s involvement, but Rosenior stressed that the player’s well-being comes first and that no final call has been made. He explained that the 18-year-old is dealing with personal issues and insisted the decision would be based entirely on what feels right for the player, rather than any external pressure.

The Chelsea boss is also facing a potential setback with Jamie Gittens, who was forced off in the first half against West Ham with what appeared to be a hamstring problem. The extent of the injury is still being assessed. Gittens was one of four players withdrawn before the second half as Rosenior reversed his plan after making seven changes to the starting line-up.

Chelsea struggled badly in the opening period and went into the break two goals down, but a number of senior players were introduced and helped turn the game around. Despite the poor first-half display, Rosenior refused to single out the rotated side for criticism.

He made it clear that he does not believe in having a fixed strongest XI, explaining that the physical demands of top-level football require intelligent squad rotation across the season. Rosenior added that he is still learning about his players after only a few weeks in charge and focuses just as much on selecting the right substitutes as he does the starting line-up. According to him, the impact made by players coming off the bench has been decisive in every match so far, crediting their mindset and attitude rather than any tactical tweaks.

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€95m spent, €31.7m earned: Manchester City’s January transfer window in full

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€95m spent, €31.7m earned: Manchester City's January transfer window in full

Manchester City have wrapped up their January transfer activity, completing a mix of high-profile arrivals, squad adjustments and several loan moves as they fine-tuned Pep Guardiola’s options for the rest of the season.

City strengthened their first team with two notable permanent signings, bringing in Antoine Semenyo from Bournemouth for €72 million and Marc Guehi from Crystal Palace in a deal worth €23 million. The club also boosted depth by recalling Max Alleyne from his loan spell at Watford and Sverre Nypan from Middlesbrough, both returning to the Etihad to provide additional cover.

On the outgoing front, City sanctioned a significant sale with Oscar Bobb joining Fulham for €31.2 million, while goalkeeper Stefan Ortega moved to Nottingham Forest for around €580,000. Mahamadou Susoho, Seb Naylor and Justin Oboavwoduo all departed on free transfers to Kocaelispor, Bristol City and Juventus respectively. Will Dickson completed a move to Chesterfield for an undisclosed fee, while Jadel Katongo joined Kayserispor under similar terms.

Several players were also sent out on short-term loans to gain minutes and experience. Kalvin Phillips joined Sheffield United on a six-month deal, while Claudio Echeverri moved to Girona for the remainder of the season. Divine Mukasa headed to Leicester City, Stephen Mfuni returned to Watford, Jahmai Simpson-Pusey signed for FC Köln, and Jaden Heskey and Joel Ndala both linked up with Sheffield Wednesday. Emilio Lawrence joined Luton Town, while Isaac Smith completed a temporary switch to Barnsley.

With business now concluded, City will turn their full focus to the second half of the campaign, confident they have added quality at the top end while ensuring valuable development pathways for several young players.

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‘Wildest flip ever’ – How Besiktas made €8M profit on Tammy Abraham in 30 hours!

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'Wildest flip ever' - How Besiktas made €8 million profit on Tammy Abraham in 30 hours!

Tammy Abraham’s January transfer has quickly become one of the most talked-about deals of the window after a rapid sequence of moves involving Roma, Besiktas and Aston Villa.

The striker completed a permanent switch from Roma to Besiktas on January 26 after spending the season on loan in Turkey, with the Istanbul club activating the purchase clause in his agreement. Besiktas paid roughly €13 million to make the move official.

Remarkably, less than 24 hours later, Abraham was unveiled as a new Aston Villa player following a swift resale.

Villa agreed a €21 million deal, allowing Besiktas to pocket an immediate profit of around €8 million in barely over a day.

The speed and structure of the transfers sparked plenty of online reaction, with fans highlighting it as another example of how unpredictable and fast-moving modern football business can be.

For Abraham, the move represents a return to familiar territory. He previously enjoyed a successful loan spell at Aston Villa during the 2018/19 season, playing a key role in their promotion to the Premier League.

Now 28, he has already made his second debut for the club, featuring in their league defeat to Brentford.

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